by Paul West
The Diamondbacks entered the 2023 World Series with the third-fewest wins of any team to make it thus far, and were expected by almost nobody to make it thus far. They seem to exemplify the saying that ‘it’s not the best team, but the hottest team’ that wins in the postseason…but that doesn’t tell the whole story. A deeper look at the Diamondbacks, from roster construction to intangibles, reveals them as a team worthy of a title shot; and if you look past their overall 2023 record, you’ll see a team that was dangerous for most of the season.
It might be easy to forget at this point, but the Diamondbacks were one of baseball’s hottest teams for a while. They went 52-39 in the first half, they actually led the NL West–ahead of the Dodgers and Giants–for part of the season, and were 16 games over .500 on July first before going 8-16 in July and 12-15 in August, setting them up to have to scrape into the Wild Card spot. Their late summer swoon is partly explicable by one of their defining characteristics: their youth-centered core.
Youth and experience, well blended
In terms of average age, the Diamondbacks are in the middle-of-the-pack. Their key players include a youth movement that compares well with that of any MLB roster: Corbin Carroll (age 23), the first rookie to hit 20 homers and steal 50 bases; Gabriel Moreno (23), a defensively elite catcher with enormous raw power whose patience at the plate and knack for big hits have landed him at third in the lineup; Gerardo Perdomo (24), the switch-hitting middle infielder who provides speed and occasional power from the bottom of the order. Ketel Marte and Christian Walker–two stars who are finally making their way to wider renown–are only 30 and 32 respectively, still in their peak years; and ace Zac Gallen is just 28. But their talented young core is well complemented: Evan Longoria is a four-time All Star and former Rookie of the Year, with years of postseason experience including a trip to the World Series. 35-year-old Tommy Pham has several years of postseason experience, and 35-year-old Merrill Kelly has been a mainstay around the top of the Diamondbacks rotation for years. The Diamondbacks actually sent four players to the All Star Game: Carroll, voted by fans as a starter; Perdomo, tagged in as a reserve; Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., also a reserve; and Gallen, the National League starter.
Newfound conviction
The Diamondbacks had a solid record against winning teams in 2023, including five wins against the Dodgers, a 3-4 record against the Phillies, and a 3-3 season split against Atlanta. They had over forty comeback wins, and as the season wore on they exuded the confidence of a team that thought two things: they could compete with any team, and they were never out of a game. In their inspired playoff run, they went through the the aforementioned Dodgers and Phillies along with the Brewers–against whom they rallied from multiple-run deficits in both games to sweep the Wild Card series. Manager Torey Lovullo has a centered, calm approach that almost certainly helped his team–who mostly lacked significant playoff experience–stay unperturbed in different situations.
A move or two away from a bright future
The biggest thing the Diamondbacks need to do in 2024 is limit the multi-week swoons that have plagued them the past few years, including ones in which they made the playoffs. The experience and added confidence from a World Series run should make them steadier over the long haul, and less given to getting out of sync for more than a couple of games at a time. Structurally, they would benefit from another power threat at the plate and another top-rotation starter; and closer Paul Sewald would need to have another great year, which might be unlikely given his long-term career record and the general volatility of relievers.
The NL West isn’t as top-heavy as it was just a few years ago; the Giants are in transition, and the Dodgers–while still a powerhouse–might undergo a pitching reload. The Diamondbacks are young, talented, and resilient, and now they’ve got World Series experience. Don’t be surprised if they’re a 90-win team in 2024.
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