by Paul West
A whopping twenty-one 1 seeds lost over the course of Championship Week this year, highlighting what seems truer every year: this a wide open draw. Here’s a breakdown of a bracket that’s full of surprise berths, sleepers, and vulnerable higher seeds.
1 UConn (31-3) vs 16 Stetson (22-12)
The UConn Huskies are disciplined and smothering defensively, and balanced on offense with multiple scorers. They share the ball and rebound. They’re almost certainly the best team in the country right now. 6’5″ senior guard Tristen Newton does it all, averaging 15.2 points, 7 boards, and 6 assists a game; he can take over a game by himself, and he’s got a serious supporting cast.
The Stetson Hatters are in the big tournament for the first time in program history, after a tough win over Austin Peay. 6’3″ junior guard Jalen Blackmon averages 20.8 a game, and he’ll have to get hot to carry a team that can really score but gives up a lot of points. One thing to keep an eye on? The Hatters have a few players who can shoot from deep…unfortunately, they’re facing what looks like the biggest buzzsaw in the bracket. Pick: UConn
2 Iowa State (27-7) vs 15 South Dakota State (22-12)
Ball movement and physical defense keyed the Iowa State Cyclones‘ pounding of Houston in the Big 12 final. But this result notwithstanding, they aren’t particularly dangerous on offense and will need to force turnovers–they force 17.5 a game–to make a run. They should be safe against the Jackrabbits.
Once again, South Dakota State Jackrabbits are back in the tournament, led by 6’4″ junior guard Zeke Mayo, who leads them with 18.4 points and 3.5 assists a game to go with 5.8 boards. They went 21-12 against a fairly middling schedule in which they didn’t play a Top 25 team; they’ll need hot shooting and limited turnovers to advance. Pick: Iowa State
3 Illinois (26-8) vs 14 Morehead State (26-8)
The Illinois Fighting Illini came back from double-digit deficits to win the Big Ten quarterfinal, semifinal, and final. This points to their resilience, but also their vulnerability…it’s hard to imagine they’ll keep getting away with spotting teams such big leads. But here they are, a physical squad that can score in bunches and grabs a lot of rebounds–and can turn it over a bunch, and only went 1-4 against Top 25 teams.
The Morehead State Eagles are defensively solid and also really attack the boards, and have a handful of solid three-point shooters. 6’7″ 230-pound senior guard Riley Minix averages 20.7 points and 9.8 boards, can score from the paint and from deep, and is the OVC Player of the Year. The Eagles have the physicality to challenge the Illini for rebounds, and if their deep shooting heats up-6’5″ grad student Khalil Thomas is a high-level three-point shooter–they’ve got a puncher’s chance here. Pick: Morehead State
4 Auburn (27-7) vs 13 Yale (22-9)
Coached by Bruce Pearl, the Auburn Tigers are an athletic team that brings the pressure on defense, gets after it on the boards, rolls with a deep bench, and scores 83.2 points a game. 6’10” 240lb junior Johni Broome has been dominant, and put up 16.2 points, 8.3 boards, and 2.1 assists a game this season. He can take over a game, and the Bulldogs will be hard-pressed to keep up.
The Yale Bulldogs won a hotly contested Ivy League Tournament as the 3 seed. 7-foot sophomore Danny Wolf is a solid presence, averaging 14.5 points and 9.7 boards along with 2.3 assists; he can do a bit of everything, and he might need to have a career game to help the Bulldogs advance. Pick: Auburn
5 San Diego State vs 12 UAB
The San Diego State Aztecs are a physical, defensive-minded team that slows things down, stifles opposing shooters, and made it all the way to the national title game last year. Senior forward Jaedon Ledee is 6’9″ and 240 pounds, averages 21.1 points a game, and can shoot from deep to complement his post moves. The Aztecs are 3-0 against Top 25 teams this season, and have beaten Gonzaga and New Mexico, and Utah State twice.
The UAB Blazers beat up an exhausted and overmatched Temple team in the AAC championship game, led by 29 from 6’4″ junior Alejandro Vasquez. 6’9″ junior forward is an explosive talent who Yaxel Lendeborg pulls down 10.5 rebounds a game along with 13.8 points and 2 assists. The Blazers can run the floor, but it’s their hot-and-cold deep shooting that will have to get hot to beat San Diego State’s tough defense. Pick: San Diego State
6 BYU (23-10) vs 11 Duquesne (24-11)
The BYU Cougars are an experienced team that’s beaten Kansas, TCU, Baylor, and Iowa State. They’re one of the best three-point-shooting teams in the draw, and this–along with their 18.6 assists a game–fuels an offense that, while not fast-paced, averages 81.8 points. They’re also solid on the boards, especially defensively, and might be a candidate to go on a run–but if their threes aren’t falling, look out.
The Duquesne Dukes beat VCU to win the A-10 title, and come into the draw on an eight-game winning streak. 6’2″ senior guard Dae Dae Grant leads them with 16.9 points a game, but the Dukes rely on a hectoring defense to win games. They’ll need to shut down the Cougars’ sharpshooters and limit their second chances. Pick: BYU
7 Washington State (24-9) vs 10 Drake (28-6)
The Washington State Cougars have beaten and Colorado, and Arizona twice. They have a stout defense, and two scorers averaging 15 points a game: 6’9″ senior forward Isaac Jones, and 6’3″ freshman guard Myles Rice. They’ll need all of the above to stop the Bulldogs’ offense.
The Drake Bulldogs are dangerous; they score 80 points a game, and share the ball to the tune of 16 assists per game. 6’7″ junior guard Tucker DeVries, a bona-fide scorer with tournament experience, averages 21.7 points, 6.8 boards, and 3.6 assists. But they give up 70 a game, almost gave up a 15-point second half lead in their conference final, and will need to limit wasted possessions if they want to fire their way to the next round. Pick: Drake
8 Florida Atlantic (25-8) vs 9 Northwestern (21-11)
The Florida Atlantic Owls are balanced and talented, get after it on defense, and have five returning starters from last year’s Final Four run. 7’1″ Vladislav Goldin is a big man who can defend the rim and score with touch, if he stays out of foul trouble.
The Northwestern Wildcats beat Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State this year. They shoot the three well, though not at high volume, and 6’2″ senior guard Boo Buie puts up 19.2 points a game and a legitimate sharpshooter. The Wildcats like to slow things down, but will have their work cut out for them trying to stop the Owls. Pick: Northwestern
Bracket busters? Keep an eye on Drake and San Diego State, but this region has a bunch of dangerous teams.
Best players you might not have heard of? Riley Minix and Jaedon Ledee are skilled big man who can score from all over the floor, and have the toughness to put their teams on their backs. Boo Buie is a sharpshooting guard who puts up almost 20 a game. Tucker DeVries is a next-level scorer who does more than score.
Who makes the final four? UConn.
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