by Paul West
A whopping twenty-one 1 seeds lost over the course of Championship Week this year, highlighting what seems truer every year: this a wide open draw. Here’s a breakdown of a bracket that’s full of surprise berths, sleepers, and vulnerable higher seeds.
1 Houston (30-4) vs 16 Longwood (21-13)
For a while, the Houston Cougars looked like they might be the best team in the country. Curiously, they were pounded 69-41 in the Big 12 final, by an Iowa State team looking to improve its draw and prove a point. The Cougars only give up 56.6 points a game, but they haven’t got a go-to scorer for days when their threes aren’t falling; and if they can’t force turnovers, their offense isn’t strong enough to pick up the slack. 6’1″ senior point guard Jamal Shead leads the Cougars with 6.2 assists a game, and when he’s locked in, he’s an elite floor leader.
The Longwood Lancers are back in the tourney for the second time in three years, this time winning the Big South title as a 5 seed. Nothing about them jumps off the page, but here they are, and they’ve got tournament experience. 6’1″ senior guard Walyn Napper leads them in scoring and assists, with 14.7 and 4.4, along with 3.9 boards a game. Pick: Houston
2 Marquette (25-9) vs 15 Western Kentucky (22-11)
The Marquette Golden Eagles announced themselves as top-tier contenders when they rolled Kansas (before the Jayhawks were beset by injuries) in the Maui Invitational, and coach Shaka Smart might have his best title shot yet. Per Smart’s coaching style, they’re aggressive on defense, force turnovers, share the ball, and score in transition. They also might be getting back Tyler Kolek, a 6’3″ senior guard who leads the nation with 7.6 assists a game and missed the end of the season with an oblique injury. 6’5″ junior guard Kam Jones is a nifty scorer who can also shoot from deep and averages 16.8 points a game. The Golden Eagles aren’t heavy on the boards, so bigger teams could get them into foul trouble, but a reunited backcourt and their high-pressure defense make them a threat to reach April.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers beat UTEP to win their first Conference-USA title, after closing the regular season on a four-game losing streak. They rely on an up-tempo style of play and score 80.7 points a game, but they’ll have to be as efficient as they’ve been of late to avoid losing a shootout–especially to a similarly up-tempo Marquette. The Hilltoppers are led in scoring and assists by 6’2″ junior guard Don MeHenry, with 15.2 and 2.4 respectively. Pick: Marquette
3 Kentucky (23-9) vs 14. Oakland (23-11)
As usual, John Calipari‘s Kentucky Wildcats are youthful, talented, and exciting, and peaked late in the regular season. They have multiple scoring threats, but still haven’t got the consistency of a steady five in crunch time; and they were just eliminated before the SEC semifinals again, for the third time in four years. They also can struggle on defense: they’ve dropped triple digits a bunch of times this season, but they’ve also given up high scoring totals to less-than-elite competition. 6’6″ senior guard Antonio Reeves (and last year’s co-Sixth Man of the Year in the SEC) leads them with 20 points a game; 6’3″ freshman guard Reed Sheppard leads them with 4.3 assists per game, and he’s also arguably the best of their multiple three-point shooters.
The Oakland Golden Grizzlies won the Horizon League title as the 1 seed, for their first appearance since 2011. They played a tough non-conference schedule and can get hot from three, so they likely won’t be intimidated–but they’ll have a tough assignment against the Wildcats. 6’6″ junior guard Trey Townsend is a versatile scorer who puts up 16.9 points, 7.8 boards, and 3.1 assists a game. Pick: Kentucky
4 Duke (24-8) vs 13 Vermont (28-6)
The Duke Blue Devils are a talented team that can beat anyone in the bracket, but are also one of the draw’s more vulnerable big names. An unexpected loss to NC State in the ACC Tournament might have been a glitch or a wake-up call. 7-foot sophomore Kyle Filipowski is do-it-all big man who can take over a game; he averages 17.1 points, 8.2 boards, and 2.8 assists a game for a team with a balanced offense but limited depth.
The Vermont Catamounts are back in the tournament for a third straight year, and have played a lot of close games–which means they’re less likely to be rattled by March pressure. The Catamounts are active and tough on defense, especially on the boards, and balanced and efficient offense–but they lack a go-to scorer. If they can get Duke in foul trouble and one of their shooters gets hot, this could be interesting. Pick: Duke
5 Wisconsin (22-13) vs 12 James Madison (31-3)
The Wisconsin Badgers lost a tough Big Ten title game to the Illini, after beating Purdue in overtime in the semifinal game. They’re led by 6’7″ sophomore guard AJ Storr, who averages 16.9 a game and can take over in crunch time. When their guards are locked in, the Badgers are real trouble; but their generally solid defense can struggle to make key stops.
The James Madison Dukes beat Arkansas State 91-71 to win the Sun Belt title. They’re aggressive at both ends of the floor, they lead the nation in wins, they pressure outside shooters, and they’re fearless. 6’6″ junior guard Terrence Edwards, Jr. leads them with 17.4 points a game, and in assists with 3.5 a game. But they aren’t a big team, so their motion and movement will have to really be disruptive if they want to advance. Pick: Wisconsin
6 Texas Tech (23-10) vs 11 NC State (22-14)
The Texas Tech Red Raiders were blown out 82-59 in the Big 12 semifinal, by a Houston team that then was blown out in the final by Iowa State. The Red Raiders rely on their solid and balanced backcourt, led by six-foot senior Joe Toussaint, who leads them with 4.3 assists a game, and 6’2″ sophomore Pop Isaacs, who leads them with 15.9 points a game. Their struggles on the glass could be their downfall, especially if their guards don’t catch fire to help them keep pace.
The NC State Wolfpack are another streaky team: they started the season 11-3, then went 6-11…then won five games in five days to secure their berth, closing with an 84-76 win over UNC. Tough defense, enormous rebounding, and inspired play have fueled the Wolfpack’s latest run. 6’9″, 275-pound senior DJ Burns Jr was one of the ACC Tournament’s folk heroes, and 6’1″ senior DJ Horne put up 29 points in the final. This senior-led group might be the biggest wild card in the draw. Pick: NC State
7 Florida (24-11) vs 10 Boise State (22-10)/Colorado (24-10)
The Florida Gators lost 7’1″ center Micah Handlogten to a gruesome leg injury early in the SEC title game and never quite recovered, losing 86-67 to Auburn; still, they’re a high-scoring and tough-rebounding team that can make a tournament run even without one of their main offensive rebounders. They’ll need to be led by their dynamic backcourt: 6’2″ junior Walter Clayton Jr. leads the Gators with 17.6 points a game, and 6’4″ senior Zyon Pullin leads them with 4.9 assists while also scoring 15.6 a game.
The Boise State Broncos have beaten Saint Mary’s, San Francisco, and Nevada this season, and they can clamp down on defense when it counts. 6’8″ junior forward Tyson Degenhart leads them with 17 points per game, but the Broncos’ scoring is balanced: four players average more than a dozen.
The Colorado Buffaloes broke an eight-game win streak with a tough 75-68 loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 final. 6’2″ junior guard KJ Simpson leads them with 19.6 points a game, along with 5.7 boards and 4.9 assists. The Buffaloes don’t jump off the page in any regard, but they’re tough. Pick: Florida
8 Nebraska (23-10) vs 9 Texas A&M (20-14)
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have beaten Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State this year. 6’2″ senior Keisei Tominaga leads them with 14.9 points a game, and is their main sharpshooter from three. They have a tough interior defense and a deliberate style on offense, but high-tempo squads that can shoot from outside will give them trouble.
The Texas A&M Aggies have been streaky all season, and were on a hot streak before losing 95-90 to Florida in the SEC semifinal. Six-foot senior guard Wade Taylor IV leads them with 18.9 points a game, though he isn’t a high-percentage shooter. The Aggies gave up an 18-point lead in their semifinals loss, and will need to find some consistency to avoid an early exit; still, if they get hot, they could be trouble. Pick: Texas A&M
Bracket busters? NC State looks like they can beat, or lose to, anyone in the draw; but this region seems a bit top-heavy.
Best player you might not have heard of? AJ Storr isn’t quite a household name, but he can take over in the clutch.
Who makes the final four? Marquette, after wading through Kentucky and the winner of Duke-Houston.
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