by Paul West
A whopping twenty-one 1 seeds lost over the course of Championship Week this year, highlighting what seems truer every year: this a wide open draw. Here’s a breakdown of a bracket that’s full of surprise berths, sleepers, and vulnerable higher seeds. The Midwest Region is loaded with erratic teams and under-the-radar stars in the waiting.
1 Purdue (29-4) vs 16 Montana State (17-17)/Grambling (20-14)
The Purdue Boilermakers have given Zach Edey a better supporting cast this year, but the probable Wooden Award winner is still their key to success. At 7’4″ and 300 pounds, Edey is one of the more imposing presences we’ve seen in a while–but he’s also a capable passer, averaging 2 assists, and has gotten even smoother with his game. A big key to the Boilermakers’ success will be their backcourt: six-foot senior guard Braden Smith, 6’1″ senior guard Lance Jones, and 6’4″ sophomore guard Fletcher Loyer, all of whom average over 25 minutes a game. The Boilermakers lost a tough overtime game to Wisconsin in the Big Ten semifinal, and opinions on their title chances seem to vary widely; but they’ve beaten the Badgers twice this season, and also have two wins against Illinois and Michigan State as well as one against Arizona. They’ve proven they can beat top teams…now they have to prove they can hold serve through March.
The Montana State Bobcats had won two consecutive Big Sky titles, but came into this year’s championship game with a 16-17 record, facing a Montana team that had beaten them in both matchups this season. They went down by double digits…then used smothering defense, inspired guard play, and pick & roll dominance by 6’10” senior John Olmstead to win 85-70. Olmstead had barely played all season, but found himself in early March with back-to-back 15-point games; he was a true force in the paint against the Grizzlies, leaping for alley-oops and grabbing key defensive boards. If he plays this way and their backcourt–led by 6-foot senior Robert Ford III, averaging 17.8 points and 7.6 boards a game–continues its poised and electric play, look out.
The Grambling Tigers won the SWAC Tournament as the top seed, and they’re in the big dance for the first time in program history. They’re a tenacious team that pushes the pace and holds opponents to 69 points a game. They’re led in scoring by junior guard Kintavious Dozier, averaging 13.1 points a game, and 6’11” senior Jonathan Aku is a strong rim protector. Pick: Purdue
2 Tennessee (24-8) vs 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13)
The Tennessee Volunteers suffered a ghastly 17-point loss to Mississippi State in the sec quarterfinal; but they’ve beaten Kentucky and Auburn, and Alabama twice. 6’6″ graduate transfer Dalton Knecht is the SEC Player of the Year, averages 21.1 points a game, and is one of the game’s elite scorers. The Volunteers score, rebound, and defend; but they do have eight losses, and look pretty vulnerable when Knecht isn’t going off.
The Saint Peter’s Peacocks beat top-seeded Quinnipiac on a buzzer-beating putback in the MAAC final. Like many of the Cinderellas in this draw, they’re hot at the right time: they’ve won 8 of their last 11. 6’6″ forward Corey Washington leads them with 16.5 points and 6.6 boards a game. We’ve seen stranger things, but the Peacocks have a tough assignment to kick things off. Pick: Tennessee
3 Creighton (23-9) vs 14 Akron (25-9)
The Creighton Blue Jays have beaten Alabama, Xavier, UConn, and Marquette this season, but also have some curious losses. 7’1″ senior forward Ryan Kalkbrenner won Big East Defensive Player of the Year for the third straight year, joining Patrick Ewing and Alonzo Mourning as the only three-time winners; he’s one of three Blue Jays averaging over 17 points a game. 6’7″ senior forward Baylor Scheierman puts up 18.9 a game, along with 9 boards and 4 assists, and he’s got parking-lot range from beyond the arc. The Blue Jays are a dangerous, albeit unpredictable, team.
The Akron Zips won a nail-biter over Kent State in the MAC final. 6’7″ senior Enrique Freeman is the MAC Player of the Year, and leads the country with 13 boards a game along with 18.6 points; he’s a double-double machine who can put a team on his shoulders in crunch time. He’ll need to come up pretty big for the Zips to advance. Pick: Creighton
4 Kansas (22-10) vs 13 Samford (29-5)
The Kansas Jayhawks had quality wins earlier in the season, but have been derailed first by inconsistency and now by injuries: to 6’7″ senior forward Kevin McCullar Jr and 7’2″ senior center Hunter Dickinson, both of whom missed the Big 12 Tournament with injuries. The Jayhawks are still talented and tough, but without two key players–and playing at Salt Lake City altitude against a high-tempo team–they could be in trouble.
The Samford Bulldogs are a high-scoring, balanced team that scores 86 a game and loves to score in transition. 6’9″ forward Achor Achor is a versatile big man who can explode when he gets hot. Coach Bucky McMillan‘s “Bucky Ball” system has been described as follows: 20+ threes per game, frequent group substitutions, and full-court press on every possession. The Bulldogs played Purdue and VCU to start the season and won’t be intimidated; against a depleted Kanas team, this could be interesting. Pick: Samford
5 Gonzaga (25-7) vs 12 McNeese (30-3)
The Gonzaga Bulldogs lost the WCC title game 69-60 to Saint Mary’s, breaking a nine-game win streak. 6’9″ 240-pound junior forward Graham Ike averages 16.5 points and 7.2 boards a game, and has decent post moves to go with his rim-rocking alley-oops. 6-foot junior guard Ryan Nembhard leads them with 6.7 assists a game, and the Bulldogs play a balanced, ball-sharing, clean game all around. They aren’t as clearly a top-tier team as in recent years; in fact, earlier this season they were considered a bubble team. But they’re here, coach Mark Few will have them well prepared, and they’re a threat til proven otherwise.
The McNeese Cowboys have beaten UAB and VCU, but otherwise feasted on a weak schedule. Southland Player of the Year Shahada Wells leads his team with 17.5 points and 4.7 assists, and he’s the clear energizer of a team that forces over 16 turnovers a game, shares the ball, and loves to score in transition. The Cowboys have multiple good shooters from behind the arc, and average 80.4 points a game. Pick: Gonzaga
6 South Carolina (26-7) vs 11 Oregon (23-11)
The Oregon Ducks hadn’t been hot, but they’re hot now: in the same weekend, they beat top-seeded Arizona and third-seeded Colorado to win the last conference title in Pac-12 history. 6’4″ senior guard Jermaine Couisnard leads the Ducks with 15.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists a game, but doesn’t shoot at a high percentage and will need to get hot at the right time to help carry them to the next round.
The South Carolina Gamecocks have beaten Kentucky, Tennessee, Grand Canyon, Florida, and Mississippi State. They were also hammered, 86-55, by Auburn in the SEC quarterfinal, and have been similarly tuned up a couple of other times this season. There’s an argument that they’re the better overall team, but the Ducks are coming in hotter. Pick: Oregon
7 Texas (20-12) vs 10 UVA (23-10)/Colorado State (24-10)
Earlier this season, the Texas Longhorns‘ 6-foot grad student Max Abmas became the 12th player in Division 1 history to reach 12,000 points; last weekend, he became the first in Division 1 history to reach 3,000 points, 500 rebounds, and 500 assists. The Longhorns are another of this region’s talented but streaky squads; predictably, Abmas leads them with 17.1 points and 4.3 assists a game.
Not only do the Virginia Cavaliers struggle to score–we’ve seen that before–but this year, they just don’t always look like a tournament team. Previous incarnations might have been plodding or deliberate on offense, but there was a sense of purpose and they had a player or two who could get them a much-needed bucket. This year, not so much–furthermore, as a team they shoot poorly from the free throw line (ironically, it was a missed ft from their best free throw shooter that led to a game-tying buzzer-beater by NC State, who went on to beat them in overtime in the ACC semifinal). Still, they find a way, and their ability to stifle opposing offenses can’t be denied.
The Colorado State Rams are a defensively stingy team with a balanced offense; they’ve got three players averaging over a dozen points, and they share the ball to the tune of 18.4 assists a game. Their berth is likely on account of a 74-61 win over Nevada in the Mountain West semifinal, but they have a go-to player in 6-foot senior guard Isaiah Stevens: Stevens leads them in scoring with 16.5 a game, and his 7 assists a game is sixth in the country. Pick: Texas
8 Utah State (27-6) vs 9 TCU (21-12)
The Utah State Aggies are a tough team that’s beaten Boise State, San Diego State, and New Mexico. 6’8″ 250-pound junior forward Great Osobor is one of the many versatile but unheralded big men in this region; he puts up 18 points, 9 boards, and 2.9 assists a game, and is big on the defensive glass. The Aggies had won six in a row and eight of nine before losing 86-70 to San Diego State in the Mountain West semifinal.
The TCU Horned Frogs are an experienced squad that creates pressure and runs the floor. They’ve beaten Houston, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Oklahoma this season. They haven’t got a dominant scorer, but they average 17 assists and lead the country with 18-6 fast break points a game. Pick: Utah State
Bracket busters? Take your pick–this region is full of erratic teams and great individual talents.
Best player you might not have heard of? Enrique Freeman is a double-double machine, and Baylor Scheierman is a rangy, do-it-all forward with deep shooting range. Max Abmas has assembled an all-time great career resume. All three can take over a game against anyone in the draw.
Who makes the final four? Purdue.
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