by Paul West
A whopping twenty-one 1 seeds lost over the course of Championship Week this year, highlighting what seems truer every year: this a wide open draw. Here’s a breakdown of a bracket that’s full of surprise berths, sleepers, and vulnerable higher seeds.
1 UNC vs 16 Howard (18-16)/Wagner (16-15)
Though widely believed to be over-seeded, the North Carolina Tar Heels are dangerous. 6’11”, 240-pound senior Armando Bacot is a bit streaky, but when he’s on fire he can double-double against anyone and is capable of dominance on the boards. Six-foot senior guard RJ Davis averages 21 points a game, is great from the free throw line and behind the arc, and is the ACC Player of the Year. The Tar Heels attack the boards and can score in bunches.
The Howard Bison is in the tournament in consecutive years for the first time, and they’ve won 7 of their last 8 and 8 of their last 11. 6’4″ junior guard Bryce Harris averages 16.6 points and 7.6 boards a game, the Bison have three players averaging 13 or more a game, and they’re a decent-shooting team from three-point range. This is a resilient, peaking squad with tournament experience.
The Wagner Seahawks took down three top seeds as the 7 seed–with seven available players!–to make the tournament for the first time since 2003. Defense and deliberate ball movement on offense are their keys, and young coach Dan Copeland makes great in-game adjustments. The Seahawks are playing with house money, trying to orchestrate one of the biggest moments in program history. Pick: UNC
2 Arizona (25-8) vs 15 Long Beach State (21-14)
The Arizona Wildcats gave up a ten-point lead to Oregon in their Pac-12 semifinals loss. They’re in the top ten in points, boards, and assists per game, and they’re 25-8 against a tough schedule. They’ve beaten Duke and Wisconsin, and Utah twice. 6’4″ senior (and UNC transfer) Caleb Love leads them with 18.1 a game, though he’s struggled from the floor lately, and 7’foot, 260-pound Oumar Ballo averages a double-double. The Wildcats are in the top ten in points, rebounds, and assists per game, and they’re definitely a threat to win it all.
You’ve probably heard this before, but popular coach Dan Monson was informed of his impending firing before Championship Week, which the Long Beach State Beach (yes, really) entered on a five-game losing streak. They haven’t lost since, and here they are. They rely on passing, balanced scoring, clutch rebounding, and a ton of tenacity. 6’3″ senior guard Marcus Tsohonis leads them with 17.6 points a game, and 6’10” senior Lassina Traore went for 25 points and 9 boards in the final. Pick: Arizona
3 Baylor (23-10) vs 14 Colgate (25-9)
The Baylor Bears score 80.5 points by way of 14.8 assists a game, and have six players averaging double-digit points. 6’2″ senior guard RayJ Dennis leads them with 6.8 assists a game, but he’s a crafty scorer who averages 13.3 a game. The Bears hit a high percentage of their threes, and will need those deep shots to keep falling if they want to make a run; if not, the Raiders’ tough defense could send them home early.
The Colgate Raiders pummeled Lehigh to win the Patriot League final for the fifth straight time. The Patriot League Player of the Year is 6-foot sophomore guard Braeden Smith, who leads the league with 5.8 assists a game; he leads the Raiders with 12.5 points a game and is second with 5.3 boards. Big men Ryan Moffet and Keegan Records are 5th-year seniors with tournament experience. The Raiders win with size, tough defense, and a balanced, methodical offense that hits timely threes. Pick: Baylor
4 Alabama (21-11) vs 13 Charleston (27-7)
The Alabama Crimson Tide score 90.8 a game and really crash the boards–but give up 81.1 a game, which usually spells trouble in March. They’re 2-7 against top-25 teams, they’ve lost three of four and four of six, and they’ll have to steady the ship in a hurry to go on a tournament run. 6’1″ senior guard Mark Sears is an elite scorer who averages 21.1 a game and is good from deep and very good from the line; but the Tide will need stops, not just scores, to advance.
The Charleston Cougars beat Stony Brook in overtime to make the tournament for the second straight time. They use depth, ball movement, and deep shooting to score 80.5 a game via 15.3 assists; they hassled San Diego State in last year’s tournament, so they won’t be intimidated by the moment. The Cougars have won twelve games in a row, and thirteen of fifteen; they could make it interesting against the Tide. Pick: Alabama
5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) vs 12 Grand Canyon (29-4)
The Saint Mary’s Gaels spent years fighting to get from under the shadow of WCC rival Gonzaga, but they beat the Zags decisively in the conference final and are officially a recognized power. The Gaels rebound and defend at an elite level, and they move the ball well and have multiple scoring threats. 6’4″ guard Augustus Marciulionis leads them with 5.2 assists a game, but the Gaels’ backcourt is deep and athletic. They aren’t on the short list of title contenders, but if they get hot, they’re a definite sleeper.
The Grand Canyon Lopes are in the tournament for the second straight year–and the third time in four years–after an 89-74 win over UT-Arlington in the WAC final. They have multiple solid shooters, three players averaging 13 points a game or more, and a legitimate game changer in 6’7″ senior Tyon Grant-Foster. They’ve beaten San Francisco and San Diego State, and their balance and tournament experience will make them a tough out. Pick: Saint Mary’s
6 Clemson (21-11) vs 11 New Mexico (26-9)
The Clemson Tigers have shown flashes of greatness this season; they’ve beaten Alabama, UNC, TCU, and Pitt. But they can struggle to defend, they’ve lost three of their last four, and it’s hard to tell which version of them will appear this week. 6’10” senior PJ Hall leads them with 18.8 points a game, and the Tigers have multiple scorers who can get hot and do damage; but they don’t rack up the rebounds or assists, and don’t excel in any one area. The red-hot Lobos are actually favored in this one.
The Mountain West Conference is deep this year, and the New Mexico Lobos just won four games in four days to take the conference title for the first time in ten years. The Lobos can score, rebound, and run the floor; they move the ball, and average 14.8 transition points a game. They have four players averaging more than a dozen points a game, led by 16.1 from six-foot senior guard Jaelen House–but 6’2″ senior guard Jamal Mashburn Jr. (yes, the son of that Jamal Mashburn) is also explosive, and the pair combined for 49 points (House with 28, Mashburn with 21)in the conference final against San Diego State. Pick: New Mexico
7 Dayton (24-7) vs 10 Nevada (26-7)
The Dayton Flyers were a surprising early-round exit in the A-10 Tournament, but they have a few quality wins and are led by an elite big man: 6’10” 235-pound DaRon Holmes II, who averages 20.1 points, 8.4 boards, and 2.6 assists along with 2.1 blocks a game. The Flyers can shoot the three, which is one thing they’ll need to beat a tough Nevada team.
The Nevada Wolf Pack are a big, tough team that went 13-5 in a deep Mountain West Conference. 6’4″ senior guard Jarod Lucas led them with 17.8 points a game, and they have a balanced offense and stingy defense. They’re the more battle-tested team, and should pull off a close one. Pick: Nevada
8 Mississippi State a(21-13) vs 9 Michigan State (19-14)
Like their first-round opponents, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have lost five of their last seven games–but they’ve won two of their last three, including a 73-56 shellacking of Tennessee in the SEC quarterfinal. They’re an athletic team that can beat most teams when they heat up, but they collectively don’t shoot well from the line or from three. 5’10” freshman guard Josh Hubbard leads them with 17.1 points a game.
One of the more widely questioned selections in the bracket, the Michigan State Spartans have beaten Baylor and Illinois but went 10-10 against a weaker-than-usual Big Ten. Their signature strengths are tough defense, 14.4 fast break points a game, and, well, coach Tom Izzo‘s tournament experience; but they have four players averaging double-digit points, led by 18.2 from 6’1″ senior guard Tyson Walker. The Spartans have lost two of their last three and five of their last seven. Pick: Michigan State
Bracket busters? Charleston can keep up with the Tide in a shootout, and that one could get interesting. And keep an eye on New Mexico, in another game that could be torrential. Saint Mary’s isn’t quite a bracket-buster, except by virtue of their seed.
Best player you might not have heard of? Tyson Grant-Foster can take over a game; DaRon Holmes II is a do-it-all big man.
Who makes the final four? I’ll go with UNC, but without much conviction; this region looks wide open.
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